Continuing through the alphabet….
Mississippi has 4 representatives: 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans
The filing deadline was Jan 11, and the primary was on March 11
Missouri has 9 representatives: 5 Republicans and 4 Democrats
Filing deadline is March 25, primary is Aug 5
Montana has one representative, a Republican
Filing deadline is March 20, primary is June 3
District: MS-01
Location Northeastern MS, bordering TN and AL, including Tupelo
Representative None (Wicker became Senator), election on April 22
First elected
2006 margin
2004 margin
Bush margin 2004 62-37
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents Democrats: Travis Childers
Demographics 15th most rural (61.5%), 5th fewest nonWhite, nonLatino, nonBlack (1.1%), 58th lowest income (median = $33K)
Assessment Long shot
District: MS-02
Location Western MS, bordering AR and LA
Representative Bennie Thompson (D)
First elected 1993
2006 margin 64-36
2004 margin 58-41
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Notes on opponents In 2006, Yvonne Brown raised $100K to Thompson’s $1.4 million; in 2004, Clinton LeSeuer raised $300K to Thompson’s $700K
Current opponents Richard Cook (Thompson is also being primaried)
Demographics 8th poorest (median income = $27K), 10th most in poverty (27.3%), 3rd most Blacks (63.2$, only IL01 and LA02 are higher), 33rd fewest Latinos (1.2%)
Assessment Safe
District: MS-03
Location Runs SW to NE, from Natchez, in the southwest, ot Starkville, in the northeast. Borders both LA and AL
Representative Chip Pickering (R)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 78% against minor parties
2004 margin 80% against minor parties
Bush margin 2004 65-34
Notes on opponents NA
Current opponents Randy Eads
Demographics 18th most rural (59.7%), 51st poorest (median income = $32K), 39th most Black (33.1%), 33rd least Latino (1.2%), 51st most Republican
Assessment long shot
District: MS-04
Location Southeastern MS, bordering AL, LA, and the Gulf
Representative Gene Taylor (D)
First elected 1989
2006 margin 80-20
2004 margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 68-31
Notes on opponents In 2004, Michael Lott raised $90K to Taylor’s $400K
Current opponents John McCay
Demographics 64th poorest (median income = $33K), 34th most Republican per Cook PVI
Assessment Safe. OK, Taylor is a very conservative Democrat. But he wins easily in a district that Bush took by more than 30 points in 04 and 08
District: MO-01
Location St. Louis
Representative William Lacy Clay (D)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 73-25
2004 margin 75-23
Bush margin 2004 25-75
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 24th most Black (49.7%), 31st most Democratic
Assessment safe
District: MO-02
Location A ring around St. Louis, including a bit of the city
Representative Todd Akin (R)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 61-37
2004 margin 65-35
Bush margin 2004 60-40
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents Mike Garman
Demographics 35th wealthiest (median income = $61K), 8 least in poverty (3.6%), 38th most White (93.2%)
Assessment Long shot
District: MO-03
Location Southern part of St. Louis, and southern suburbs
Representative Russ Carnahan (D)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 66-32
2004 margin 53-45
Bush margin 2004 57-43
Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat (formerly occupied by Gephardt), and Carnahan beat Bill Federer with each spending about $1.3 million. In 2006, his opponent raised little
Current opponents David Bertelson, Chris Sander
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MO-04
Location Western MO, bordering KS, including Jefferson City
Representative Ike Skelton
First elected 1976
2006 margin 68-29
2004 margin 66-32
Bush margin 2004 64-35
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 17th most rural (60.1%), 85th poorest (median income = $35K), 37th most veterans (16.1%), 87th most Republican
Assessment safe
District: MO-05
Location Kansas City and suburbs
Representative Emanuel Cleaver (D)
First elected 2004
2006 margin 64-32
2004 margin 55-42
Bush margin 2004 40-59
Notes on opponents In 2004, this was an open seat, and Cleaver was out-spent $3.2 million to $1.5 million by Joanne Patterson. In 2006, his opponent raised little money
Current opponents Jacob Turk
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Safe
District: MO-06
Location Northwestern MO, bordering IA, NE, and KS
Representative Sam Graves (R)
First elected 2000
2006 margin 62-36
2004 margin 64-35
Bush margin 2004 57-42
Notes on opponents In 2004, Charlie Broomfield spent $900K to Graves’ $1.7 million. In 2006, Sara Jo Shettles spent $130K to Graves’ $1.2 million
Current opponents Kay Barnes
Demographics Not unusual on what I track
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable. Barnes is Mayor of Kansas City, and has raised $656K already. superribbie ranks this the 42nd most vul. Republican seat
District: MO-07
Location Southwestern MO, bordering KS, OK, and AR, including Joplin
Representative Roy Blunt (R)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 67-30
2004 margin 70-28
Bush margin 2004 67-32
Notes on opponents In 2004, Jim Newberry raised $200K to Blount’s $3.5 million. In 2006, his opponent raised little
Current opponents None declared
Demographics 86th most rural (40.9%), 62nd poorest (meidan income = $33K), 45th most Whites (92.9%), 42nd fewest Blacks (1.2%)
Assessment long shot
District: MO-08
Location Southeastern MO, bordering KY, TN, and AR.
Representative Jo Ann Emerson (R)
First elected 1996
2006 margin 72-26
2004 margin 72-27
Bush margin 2004 63-36
Notes on opponents Neither raised money
Current opponents Joe Allen (no apparent site)
Demographics 16th most rural (60.4%), 12th poorest (meidan income = $28K), 30th most Whites (92.5%), 22nd fewest Latinos (1.0%), 87th most Republican
Assessment long shot
District: MO-09
Location Northeastern MO, bordering IA and IL, including part of Jefferson City
Representative Kenny Hulshof (R) retiring
First elected 1996
2006 margin 61-36
2004 margin 65-34
Bush margin 2004 59-41
Notes on opponents In 2006, Duane Burghard raised $250K to Hulshof’s $1.3 million; in 2004, Linda Jacobsen raised $130K to his $1 million
Current opponents Democrats:
Steve Gaw ,
Duane Burghard ,
and
Judy Baker
Demographics 31st most rural (54.2%),
Assessment Somewhat vulnerable; superribbie (link above) ranks this the 25th most vulnerable Republican seat; the Republican contender appears to have raised no money.
District: MT-AL
Location Entire state
Representative Denny Rehberg (R)*possibly retiring to run for Senate*
First elected 2000
2006 margin 59-39
2004 margin 64-33
Bush margin 2004 59-39
Notes on opponents In 2006, Monica Lindeen raised $500K to Rehberg’s $1.1 million; in 2004, Tracy Velazquez raised $120K to Rehberg’s $600 K
Current opponents Jim Hunt
Demographics 68th most rural (46.0%), 65th lowest income (median = $33K), 37th most White (89.5%), 3rd fewest Blacks (0.3%)
Assessment If Rehberg runs for Senate, who knows?